Housingwire reports “following the surprising jobs report released on Friday, the 10-year yield dipped slightly on Monday. As a result, mortgage rates have reached a new low for 2025, with Mortgage Daily News reporting a rate of 6.57%. Remarkably, we haven’t seen a single Fed rate cut this year! The bond market influences the Federal Reserve, and the recent weak jobs report caused yields to drop significantly last Friday. Currently, the 10-year yield remains slightly lower. “

Yahoo Finance reports that Mortgage rates are down today. According to Zillow, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased by 14 basis points to 6.46%, while the 15-year rate has dropped eight basis points to 5.68%.

With the Federal Reserve leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at last week’s meeting, mortgage rates probably won’t fall more drastically this summer. However, rates could drop later this year. The CME FedWatch tool reports a 94% likelihood that the central bank will lower the rate at its September meeting. If this prediction continues to hold weight, mortgage rates could decrease leading up to the next Fed meeting

Expert predictions for 2025 and 2026

• General Consensus: Most experts predict that mortgage rates will remain in the 6% range throughout 2025 and potentially into 2026, with only modest declines expected.
• National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): Expects rates to average 6.7% in 2025 and fall to 6.3% in 2026, potentially dropping below 6% (averaging 5.98%) in 2026.
• National Association of Realtors (NAR): Also predicts rates to average 6.7% in 2025 and fall to 6% in 2026.
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Forecasts rates near 6.7% by the end of 2025 and 6.4% by the end of 2026.
• Fannie Mae: Predicts rates to edge down to 6.4% by the end of the year and fall to 6.1% by the end of 2026.
• Realtor.com: Anticipates rates to drop to 6.20% by the end of 2025. 

Factors influencing mortgage rate trends

• Inflation: Higher inflation typically leads to higher mortgage rates as lenders seek to offset the decreasing value of money.
• Economic Growth: Strong economic growth often drives rates up due to increased demand for borrowing, while economic slowdowns may result in lower rates.
• Federal Reserve Policy: While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its decisions on the federal funds rate indirectly influence them.
• Bond Market: Mortgage rates are tied to the bond market, and global events or economic uncertainties can impact bond prices, affecting mortgage rates.
• Individual Factors: Your credit score, home location, loan amount, down payment, and chosen loan type also affect your specific mortgage rate.